- Based on rolling monthly data, over a three-year holding period, the probability of gains for the S&P 500 is 85%.
- Buy when others are fearful, as Warren Buffet famously said. The biggest up days tend to come below the 200-day moving average.
- The S&P 500 has gained an average of 9.8% since 1990. If you miss the best day each year, your return drops to 6.1%. Miss the best two days, and you're better off sticking with bonds — your average gain drops to just 3%.
- A typical market correction is defined as down 10–19%.
- Historically (since 1980), after corrections, the S&P 500 has been higher by an average of 13.1% three months later, with gains 92% of the time. That’s from the low which, of course, is only apparent in hindsight, but it speaks to the potential upside from putting new money to work after corrections occur.
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